India's economic growth prospects should remain strong over the medium term, with GDP expanding 6-7.1 per cent annually in fiscal years 2024-2026, S&P Global Ratings said on Thursday. In a report titled 'Global Banks Country-By-Country Outlook 2024', S&P said the banking sector's weak loans will decline to 3-3.5 per cent of gross advances by March 31, 2025, on the back of structural improvement, including healthy corporate balance sheets, tighter underwriting standards and improved risk-management practices. Interest rates in India are unlikely to rise materially, and this should limit the risk for the banking industry, it added.
The bad assets or gross NPAs of commercial banks fell to a 12-year low of 2.8 per cent in March 2024 and may go down further to 2.5 per cent by the end of the current fiscal, said the RBI's Financial Stability Report (FSR) released on Thursday. Scheduled Commercial Banks' (SCBs) gross non-performing assets (GNPA) ratio fell to 2.8 per cent, and the net non-performing assets (NNPA) ratio to 0.6 per cent at the end of March 2024. "The asset quality of SCBs recorded sustained improvement, and their GNPA ratio moderated to a 12-year low in March 2024. Their NNPA ratio too improved to a record low," said the June FSR.
A flow chart explaining how India balances its books.
The allocations for social sectors either have been maintained or increased.
The challenge for the RBI in 2024 is likely to be less about containing elevated inflation and more about curbing excessive financial market exuberance and a 'problem of plenty', notes Sajjid Chinoy, Chief India Economist JP Morgan.
'The prime minister's comment on 'revdi culture' was welcome. But I am disappointed he did not follow up on that.' 'All political parties, including the BJP, have been guilty of this.' 'Now, Modi's guarantees, the Congress's 'nyay' path and both ruling and Opposition parties are vying with each other for freebies in my home state Andhra Pradesh.'
The Reserve Bank (RBI) resisted a 'raid' planned by some in the government to extract Rs 2-3 lakh crore from its balance sheet in 2018 to meet populist spending in run-up to general elections, Viral Acharya, who was deputy governor at RBI at that time, has written.
Capital expenditure by Indian companies is likely to see an uptick in the upcoming quarters as capacity utilisation has surpassed the critical threshold of 75 per cent, and numerous companies have deleveraged their balance sheets, according to analysts. The first quarter of the current financial year has shown improved profitability, driven by a decrease in input prices. This, according to analysts at Care Ratings, should stimulate a revival in the private capex cycle.
When emerging from this crisis, the govt must consider a fresh approach to reviving growth, revisiting the Centre-state fiscal balance, and devising a re-imagined GST 2.0, suggests T N Ninan.
The 3 per cent target would now to reached a year later.
While India won't be immune to global spillovers, we need to create the macro preconditions for sustained growth. Policy agility, prudence, and resilience will be key, suggests Sonal Varma.
India can sustain 8 per cent annual GDP growth and the conducive macroeconomic configuration may become a launching pad for a step-up in the country's growth trajectory, said an article on the 'State of Economy' in the central bank's March Bulletin published on Tuesday. Over the period 2021-24, gross domestic product (GDP) growth has averaged above 8 per cent. The global economy is losing steam, with growth slowing in some of the most resilient economies and high frequency indicators, pointing to further levelling in the period ahead, said the article authored by a team led by RBI Deputy Governor Michael Debabrata Patra.
Justifying the hike in customs duty on gold in the Budget, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee today said its huge imports cause strain on the balance of payment and affect exchange rate, but it does not have any direct bearing on the forex reserve.
India's merchandise exports rose by 9.1 per cent to $38.13 billion in May even as the trade deficit widened to a seven-month high of $23.78 billion during the month, according to government data. Healthy growth in sectors, such as engineering, electronics, pharmaceuticals, textiles and plastics helped register growth in exports despite global economic uncertainties.
The Indian IT services sector is staring at a second consecutive year of muted revenue growth due to modest increase in tech spends in Europe and the US, a domestic rating agency said on Wednesday. Crisil Ratings said it expects the sector to grow at 5-7 per cent in FY25, after a growth of 6 per cent estimated to have been achieved in FY24. The overall industry size is pegged at $250 billion and it creates over 50 lakh direct jobs.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday said that the Budget 20010-11 presented by Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee is in line with the path of fiscal consolidation and economic revival.
One Rank One Pension (OROP) will have a significant impact on the country's fiscal bill and the overall cost will be around Rs 16,000 crore.
The government has exhausted only 39 per cent of its fiscal deficit target in the first half of FY24.
These are valuable suggestions and one hopes the Budget will make a start on that.
India's current account deficit declined sharply to 1 per cent of the GDP or $8.3 billion in the second quarter of this financial year, mainly due to lower merchandise trade deficit and growth in services exports, according to a RBI data released on Tuesday. The current account deficit (CAD), which represents the difference between the total amount of money sent abroad and money received from overseas across the economy, was 3.8 per cent of GDP or $30.9 billion in the July-September quarter in 2022-23. CAD was $9.2 billion or 1.1 per cent of GDP in the first quarter (April-June) of the current financial year 2023-24.
also made a case for the need to create a self-sufficiency fund for innovation, construction and manufacturing clusters to make use of the emerging opportunities in the wake of disruption in global supply chain.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi had announced a relief package of Rs 20 lakh crore or about 10 per cent or GDP last week. However, many of the measures unveiled have been in the form of moves like loan guarantees which do not entail an immediate fiscal cost.
The Supreme Court on Monday referred to a five-judge Constitution bench a suit filed by the Kerala government raising the issue of ceiling on net borrowing.
The Union Budget for 2009-10 presented by the finance minister is on predictable lines. Surely, the finance minister has done a fine balancing act of giving a thrust to growth while trying to contain fiscal imbalance.
'If some measures are implemented quickly, they can help revive growth.'
Maruti will launch its first electric vehicle (EV) in the next financial year (FY24), and will roll out six EVs in the country by FY30, the automaker's parent firm Suzuki said on Thursday.
'There is merit in keeping the central bank's balance sheet strong if the government's fiscal balance sheet is weak.'
With tailwinds of strong operational performance and favourable market conditions, InterGlobe Aviation on Wednesday reported a record profit after tax of Rs 3,090.6 crore in the three months ended June. The parent of the country's largest airline also reported its highest-ever quarterly total income of Rs 17,160.9 crore in the first quarter of the current fiscal, according to a release. The carrier, which had 316 planes in its fleet at the end of June 2023, had registered a loss of Rs 1,064.3 crore in the 2022 June quarter.
The Indian economy is expected to grow around 10 per cent during the current financial year on the likelihood of fewer COVID-19-linked supply disruptions and buoyancy in the global economy, said Poonam Gupta, director general of economic think-tank NCAER. The real challenge, however, would be to sustain a growth rate of 7-8 per cent in years to come, she said. "We could see annual growth in the ballpark range of about 10 per cent. "The reasons for this perceived optimism are: fewer supply disruptions; increased pent-up demand in the traditional and contact-intensive services; and a buoyant global economy.
A continued focus on low inflation will be important to keeping gold imports, IMF said.
BJP's reversals in rural Gujarat has prompted many policy watchers to predict that the Budget would have incentives for the agriculture sector and the rural economy.
Re-rating of Axis Bank's stock may continue in the near-future, believe analysts, as the risk-reward on the stock remains favourable amid healthy financials. The bullish stance comes after the Mumbai-based lender delivered a strong outperformance in the March quarter of fiscal year 2023-24 (Q4FY24) on core pre-provision profit and net profit, with improving asset quality. Axis Bank's net interest margin (NIM) expanded, against expectations, even in a tough market.
Jaitley's Budget has the potential to change the face of Modi's Bharat
Three policymakers aware of the central bank's deliberations on the Budget said they are combing through the numbers to test how Jaitley struck a balance, and question some of the assumptions.
India's gold and silver imports from its free trade agreement (FTA) partner UAE have skyrocketed 210 per cent to $10.7 billion in 2023-24 and there is a need to potentially revise the concessional customs duty rates under the pact to mitigate the arbitrage driving this surge, a report said on Monday. Economic think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said this sharp rise in gold and silver imports is primarily driven by import duty concessions granted by India to the UAE under the India-UAE Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA).
Prices may go up because of higher energy costs, caused by the rise in shipping charges, with commercial vessels taking a longer route to avoid the troubled Red Sea region, the finance ministry said on Monday. Iran-backed Houthi rebels of Yemen are repeatedly attacking ships in the Red Sea. While the global economy is grappling with challenges such as sticky inflation, sluggish growth, and mounting fiscal pressure, India's external sector could face "potential risks" due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions, according to the finance ministry's report on the review of the Indian economy.
Enthused by higher than expected GDP numbers in the fourth quarter of 2022-23, Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran on Wednesday said India's economic growth may exceed the initial estimate of 6.5 per cent in the current fiscal and the country can look for another year of solid economic performance.
India's current account deficit narrowed to $1.3 billion or 0.2 per cent of GDP in the January-March quarter of FY23, mainly due to moderation in the trade deficit and a robust increase in services exports, RBI data showed on Tuesday. However, for the 2022-23 fiscal, the current account balance recorded a deficit of 2 per cent of GDP compared to 1.2 per cent in 2021-22. "India's current account deficit (CAD) decreased to $1.3 billion (0.2 per cent of GDP) in Q4:2022-23 from $16.8 billion (2.0 per cent of GDP) in Q3:2022-231, and $13.4 billion (1.6 per cent of GDP) a year ago [Q4:2021-22]," as per the RBI's 'Developments in India's Balance of Payments during the Fourth Quarter (January-March) of 2022-23'.
Moody's Investors Service on Wednesday affirmed the ratings of two major Indian IT services companies, Tata Consultancy Services Limited (TCS) and Infosys. In two separate statements, Moody's also retained stable outlook for both the companies. Moody's expects Infosys' revenues to climb by around 13 per cent for the financial year ending March 31, 2023, but moderate to around 8 per cent in the next 2024 fiscal.
India decisively withstood global headwinds in 2023 and is likely to remain as the world's fastest-growing major economy on the back of growing demand, moderate inflation, stable interest rate regime and robust foreign exchange reserves. Despite widespread pessimism witnessed among the developed nations and the worsening geopolitical situation, India recorded a gross domestic product (GDP) expansion of 6.1 per cent in the March quarter. The growth moved up to 7.8 per cent in the June quarter and was 7.6 per cent in the September quarter. For the first six months of this fiscal, the growth was 7.7 per cent.
